2016 United States Senate election in Iowa

2016 United States Senate election in Iowa
	Grassley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Judge: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90%; Tie: 40–50%
U.S. senator before election; Chuck Grassley; Republican	Elected U.S. Senator ; Chuck Grassley; Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Iowa was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley won reelection to a seventh term in office. Primary elections were held June 7, 2016,^[1] with Grassley facing no primary opposition, and former lieutenant governor Patty Judge winning the Democratic nomination. Grassley won a seventh term in a sixth consecutive landslide and outperformed Donald Trump, who also won the state that year; nevertheless, this represented Grassley's worst re-election performance at the time since his first race in 1980, until 6 years later when Michael Franken would not only make Grassley fall below 60% of the vote, but also cut his winning percentage in half and flip several counties (namely Black Hawk, Linn, Story and Polk) that Grassley carried in this election.^[2]

Background

Republican Chuck Grassley was first elected to the Senate in 1980, defeating Democratic incumbent John Culver by 53% to 46%. Since then, Grassley has been re-elected five times, most recently in 2010, on each occasion taking at least 64% of the vote.

Despite speculation that Grassley, who turned 83 years old in 2016, might retire,^[3] he announced in September 2013 that he was "making plans to run for re-election", but added that "it's not taking much of my time. I'm concentrating on doing my job for Iowans."^[4]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Chuck Grassley, incumbent senator^[4]^[5]

Withdrawn

Robert Rees, talk radio host^[6]^[7]^[8]

Declined

Pat Grassley, state representative and grandson of Chuck Grassley^[9]
Steve King, U.S. Representative^[10]
Tom Latham, former U.S. Representative^[10]

Results

Republican primary results^[11]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Chuck Grassley (Incumbent)	90,089	98.36%
	Republican	Write-ins	1,500	1.64%
Total votes			91,589	100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Tom Fiegen, former state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010^[5]
Rob Hogg, state senator^[12]
Patty Judge, former lieutenant governor and former Iowa Secretary of Agriculture^[13]^[14]^[15]
Bob Krause, former state representative, nominee for state treasurer in 1978, candidate for Mayor of Waterloo in 1982 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2010^[16]

Withdrawn

Ray Zirkelbach, former state representative^[17]^[18]

Declined

Christie Vilsack, former First Lady of Iowa and nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2012^[9]
Tom Vilsack, United States Secretary of Agriculture and former governor of Iowa^[10]
Chet Culver, former governor of Iowa^[9]^[19]
Michael Gronstal, Majority Leader of the Iowa Senate and Chairman of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee^[9]^[20]
Dave Loebsack, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)^[10]^[21]
Andy McGuire, chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2006^[5]
Tyler Olson, former state representative, former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party, and candidate for governor in 2014^[22]^[23]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Patty Judge	Rob Hogg	Bob Krause	Tom Fiegen	None/Other	Undecided
Des Moines Register^[24]	May 30 – June 2, 2016	542	± 4.2%	42%	25%	6%	5%	6%	15%
KBUR-AM 1490^[25]	May 31 – June 1, 2016	1,361	± 3.0%	37%	31%	3%	6%	–	23%

Results

Democratic primary results^[11]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Patty Judge	46,322	47.62%
	Democratic	Rob Hogg	37,801	38.86%
	Democratic	Tom Fiegen	6,573	6.76%
	Democratic	Bob Krause	6,425	6.60%
	Democratic	Write-ins	154	0.16%
Total votes			97,275	100.00%

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[26]	Likely R	November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[27]	Safe R	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report^[28]	Safe R	November 3, 2016
Daily Kos^[29]	Safe R	November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics^[30]	Safe R	November 7, 2016

Debates

Dates	Location	Grassley	Judge	Link
October 19, 2016	Sioux City, Iowa	Participant	Participant	^[31]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chuck Grassley (R)	Patty Judge (D)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey^[32]	November 1–7, 2016	1,781	± 4.6%	57%	39%	—	4%
SurveyMonkey^[33]	Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016	1,598	± 4.6%	56%	39%	—	5%
Des Moines Register/Selzer^[34]	November 1–4, 2016	800	± 3.5%	56%	33%	2%	4%
Emerson College^[35]	November 1–3, 2016	700	± 3.6%	60%	32%	4%	5%
Loras College^[36]	November 1–3, 2016	500	± 4.4%	53%	37%	1%	8%
SurveyMonkey^[37]	Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016	1,469	± 4.6%	57%	39%	—	4%
SurveyMonkey^[38]	Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016	1,226	± 4.6%	57%	40%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey^[39]	Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016	867	± 4.6%	56%	41%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey^[40]	October 25–31, 2016	984	± 4.6%	56%	41%	—	3%
Quinnipiac University^[41]	October 20–26, 2016	791	± 3.5%	56%	38%	—	5%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey^[42]	October 8–16, 2016	1,135	± 0.5%	56%	40%	—	5%
Google Consumer Surveys^[43]	October 12–14, 2016	523	± 4.2%	56%	41%	—	3%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid^[44]	October 7–10, 2016	917	± 3.0%	51%	39%	—	11%
Des Moines Register/Selzer^[45]	October 3–6, 2016	642	± 3.5%	53%	36%	2%	6%
Loras College^[46]	September 20–22, 2016	491	± 4.4%	54%	37%	—	9%
Quinnipiac University^[47]	September 13–21, 2016	612	± 4.0%	55%	43%	—	2%
Monmouth University^[48]	September 12–14, 2016	404	± 4.9%	56%	39%	2%	3%
RABA Research^[49]	September 6–8, 2016	1,054	± 3.0%	50%	37%	—	13%
Emerson College^[50]	Aug 31–Sept 1, 2016	600	± 3.9%	51%	40%	3%	6%
Public Policy Polling^[51]	August 30–31, 2016	827	± 3.4%	49%	43%	—	8%
CBS News/YouGov^[52]	August 17–19, 2016	987	± 4.0%	45%	38%	1%	15%
Quinnipiac University^[53]	August 9–16, 2016	846	± 3.4%	51%	42%	—	6%
Suffolk University^[54]	August 8–10, 2016	500	± 4.4%	52%	42%	—	6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist^[55]	August 3–7, 2016	899	± 3.3%	52%	42%	1%	5%
CBS News/YouGov^[56]	July 13–15, 2016	998	± 4.8%	45%	37%	2%	16%
Monmouth University^[57]	July 8–11, 2016	401	± 4.9%	52%	42%	—	6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist^[58]	July 5–10, 2016	822	± 3.4%	52%	42%	1%	5%
Loras College^[59]	June 24–28, 2016	600	± 4.0%	46%	45%	—	9%
Public Policy Polling^[60]	June 22–23, 2016	897	± 3.3%	46%	39%	—	14%
Public Policy Polling^[61]	June 9–13, 2016	630	± 3.9%	48%	41%	—	11%

Hypothetical polling

with Rob Hogg

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chuck Grassley (R)	Rob Hogg (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[62]	January 8–10, 2016	1,901	± 2.3%	52%	28%	19%
Public Policy Polling^[63]	December 10–13, 2015	1,426	± 2.6%	54%	29%	17%
Public Policy Polling^[64]	October 30–November 1, 2015	1,668	± 2.4%	53%	29%	18%
Public Policy Polling^[65]	August 7–9, 2015	1,500	± 2.5%	52%	28%	20%

with Tom Fiegen

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chuck Grassley (R)	Tom Fiegen (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[62]	January 8–10, 2016	1,901	± 2.3%	53%	29%	18%
Public Policy Polling^[63]	December 10–13, 2015	1,426	± 2.6%	54%	29%	16%
Public Policy Polling^[64]	October 30–November 1, 2015	1,668	± 2.4%	54%	30%	16%
Public Policy Polling^[65]	August 7–9, 2015	1,500	± 2.5%	53%	30%	17%

with Bob Krause

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chuck Grassley (R)	Bob Krause (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[62]	January 8–10, 2016	1,901	± 2.3%	52%	28%	20%
Public Policy Polling^[63]	December 10–13, 2015	1,426	± 2.6%	53%	28%	19%
Public Policy Polling^[64]	October 30–November 1, 2015	1,668	± 2.4%	52%	28%	21%
Public Policy Polling^[65]	August 7–9, 2015	1,500	± 2.5%	51%	29%	20%

with Tom Vilsack

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Chuck Grassley (R)	Tom Vilsack (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[66]	September 25–28, 2014	1,192	± 2.8%	51%	42%	7%
Public Policy Polling^[67]	May 15–19, 2014	914	± 3.3%	49%	39%	12%
Public Policy Polling^[68]	February 20–23, 2014	869	± 3.3%	48%	41%	11%

Results

United States Senate election in Iowa, 2016^[69]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Chuck Grassley (incumbent)	926,007	60.09%	−4.26%
	Democratic	Patty Judge	549,460	35.66%	+2.36%
	Libertarian	Charles Aldrich	41,794	2.71%	+0.44%
	Independent	Jim Hennager	17,649	1.15%	N/A
	Independent	Michael Luick-Thrams	4,441	0.29%	N/A
	n/a	Write-ins	1,685	0.11%	+0.03%
Total votes			1,541,036	100.0%	N/A
	Republican hold

By congressional district

Grassley won all 4 of the congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.^[70]

District	Grassley	Judge	Representative
1st	58%	38%	Rod Blum
2nd	56%	39%	Dave Loebsack
3rd	58%	37%	David Young
4th	68%	28%	Steve King

References

^ Iowa Secretary of State, Primary Election, sos.iowa.gov
^ Miller, Stephen. "Republican Chuck Grassley wins eighth term, defeats Mike Franken in Iowa US Senate race". Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 16, 2023.
^ Matt Kelley (January 29, 2013). "Senator Grassley not ready to consider joining Harkin in retirement". Radio Iowa. Retrieved May 22, 2014.
^ ^a ^b Livingston, Abby (September 20, 2013). "Grassley Planning to Run Again in 2016". Roll Call. Archived from the original on September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
^ ^a ^b ^c Jacobs, Jennifer; Noble, Jason (March 31, 2015). "And he's off: Event kicks off Grassley's re-election campaign". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 31, 2015.
^ Porter, Jake (January 19, 2016). "Primary Challenger Announces Against Grassley". Iowa Free Press. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
^ "IA-Sen: Robert Rees challenging Chuck Grassley in GOP primary". Bleeding Heartland. February 12, 2016. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
^ "IA-Sen: Robert Rees ends GOP primary challenge to Chuck Grassley". Bleeding Heartland. March 15, 2016. Retrieved March 17, 2016.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Cahn, Emily (June 26, 2013). "Hawkeye Politicians Finally See Some Opportunity in 2014 | Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved August 14, 2013.
^ ^a ^b "Official Results" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved July 21, 2016.
^ Petroski, William (September 21, 2015). "Hogg to seek Grassley's seat in U.S. Senate". Des Moines Register. Retrieved September 22, 2015.
^ Noble, Jason (February 25, 2016). "Challenge Grassley? Patty Judge is thinking about it". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 25, 2016.
^ Steinhauer, Jennifer (March 3, 2016). "Charles Grassley Faces Formidable Challenger in Iowa Senate Race". The New York Times. Retrieved March 3, 2016.
^ Noble, Jason (March 4, 2016). "It's official: Patty Judge challenges Chuck Grassley". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
^ "Krause ends bid for governor, endorses fellow Democrat Hatch". Des Moines Register. January 2, 2014. Archived from the original on January 3, 2014. Retrieved January 3, 2014.
^ Lynch, James Q. (November 7, 2015). "Zirkelbach is fourth candidate in Democratic U.S. Senate race". The Gazette. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
^ "IA-Sen: Patty Judge thinking about challenging Chuck Grassley". Bleeding Heartland. February 26, 2016. Retrieved February 26, 2016.
^ Noble, Jason (March 4, 2016). "Former Iowa Gov. Chet Culver tells me he WILL NOT run for Congress or any other political office in 2016". Twitter. Retrieved March 4, 2016.
^ Petroski, William (January 26, 2016). "61 legislators endorse Hogg's U.S. Senate bid". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 14, 2016.
^ Henderson, O. Kay (April 21, 2015). "Loebsack in Des Moines to talk 2016 campaign strategy". Radio Iowa. Retrieved July 23, 2015.
^ Rynard, Pat (May 28, 2015). "Rumor Roundup: Ravi Patel's Super PAC, Webb's Loss, Adams In, Bertrand for Governor". Iowa Starting Line. Retrieved May 28, 2015.
^ "Two bizarre takes on the IA-Sen Democratic primary". Bleeding Heartland. March 7, 2016. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
^ Des Moines Register
^ KBUR-AM 1490
^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
^ Full debate - C-SPAN
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ Des Moines Register/Selzer
^ Emerson College
^ Loras College Archived November 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ SurveyMonkey
^ Quinnipiac University Archived July 30, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
^ Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Archived October 19, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
^ Google Consumer Surveys
^ The Times-Picayune/Lucid
^ Des Moines Register/Selzer
^ Loras College
^ Quinnipiac University Archived September 24, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
^ Monmouth University
^ RABA Research Archived September 13, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
^ Emerson College
^ Public Policy Polling^[usurped]
^ CBS News/YouGov
^ Quinnipiac University Archived October 14, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
^ Suffolk University
^ NBC/WSJ/Marist
^ CBS News/YouGov
^ Monmouth University
^ NBC/WSJ/Marist
^ Loras College Archived July 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Public Policy Polling
^ ^a ^b ^c Public Policy Polling
^ ^a ^b ^c Public Policy Polling
^ ^a ^b ^c Public Policy Polling
^ ^a ^b ^c Public Policy Polling
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Public Policy Polling
^ Public Policy Polling
^ "Official Results General Election" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved December 19, 2016.
^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting.

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

[1] Iowa Secretary of State, Primary Election, sos.iowa.gov

[2] Miller, Stephen. "Republican Chuck Grassley wins eighth term, defeats Mike Franken in Iowa US Senate race". Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 16, 2023.

[3] Matt Kelley (January 29, 2013). "Senator Grassley not ready to consider joining Harkin in retirement". Radio Iowa. Retrieved May 22, 2014.

[Grassley-4] Livingston, Abby (September 20, 2013). "Grassley Planning to Run Again in 2016". Roll Call. Archived from the original on September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 20, 2013.

[andhesoff-5] Jacobs, Jennifer; Noble, Jason (March 31, 2015). "And he's off: Event kicks off Grassley's re-election campaign". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 31, 2015.

[6] Porter, Jake (January 19, 2016). "Primary Challenger Announces Against Grassley". Iowa Free Press. Retrieved February 14, 2016.

[7] "IA-Sen: Robert Rees challenging Chuck Grassley in GOP primary". Bleeding Heartland. February 12, 2016. Retrieved February 14, 2016.

[8] "IA-Sen: Robert Rees ends GOP primary challenge to Chuck Grassley". Bleeding Heartland. March 15, 2016. Retrieved March 17, 2016.

[16in16-9] Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014.

[farmteam-10] Cahn, Emily (June 26, 2013). "Hawkeye Politicians Finally See Some Opportunity in 2014 | Farm Team". Roll Call. Retrieved August 14, 2013.

[IAprimaryresults-11] "Official Results" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved July 21, 2016.

[12] Petroski, William (September 21, 2015). "Hogg to seek Grassley's seat in U.S. Senate". Des Moines Register. Retrieved September 22, 2015.

[13] Noble, Jason (February 25, 2016). "Challenge Grassley? Patty Judge is thinking about it". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 25, 2016.

[14] Steinhauer, Jennifer (March 3, 2016). "Charles Grassley Faces Formidable Challenger in Iowa Senate Race". The New York Times. Retrieved March 3, 2016.

[15] Noble, Jason (March 4, 2016). "It's official: Patty Judge challenges Chuck Grassley". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved March 4, 2016.

[krauseends-16] "Krause ends bid for governor, endorses fellow Democrat Hatch". Des Moines Register. January 2, 2014. Archived from the original on January 3, 2014. Retrieved January 3, 2014.

[17] Lynch, James Q. (November 7, 2015). "Zirkelbach is fourth candidate in Democratic U.S. Senate race". The Gazette. Retrieved February 14, 2016.

[18] "IA-Sen: Patty Judge thinking about challenging Chuck Grassley". Bleeding Heartland. February 26, 2016. Retrieved February 26, 2016.

[19] Noble, Jason (March 4, 2016). "Former Iowa Gov. Chet Culver tells me he WILL NOT run for Congress or any other political office in 2016". Twitter. Retrieved March 4, 2016.

[20] Petroski, William (January 26, 2016). "61 legislators endorse Hogg's U.S. Senate bid". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 14, 2016.

[21] Henderson, O. Kay (April 21, 2015). "Loebsack in Des Moines to talk 2016 campaign strategy". Radio Iowa. Retrieved July 23, 2015.

[rumorroundup-22] Rynard, Pat (May 28, 2015). "Rumor Roundup: Ravi Patel's Super PAC, Webb's Loss, Adams In, Bertrand for Governor". Iowa Starting Line. Retrieved May 28, 2015.

[23] "Two bizarre takes on the IA-Sen Democratic primary". Bleeding Heartland. March 7, 2016. Retrieved March 8, 2016.

[24] Des Moines Register

[25] KBUR-AM 1490

[26] "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.

[27] "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.

[28] "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.

[29] "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.

[30] "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.

[31] Full debate - C-SPAN

[32] SurveyMonkey

[33] SurveyMonkey

[34] Des Moines Register/Selzer

[35] Emerson College

[36] Loras College Archived November 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine

[37] SurveyMonkey

[38] SurveyMonkey

[39] SurveyMonkey

[40] SurveyMonkey

[41] Quinnipiac University Archived July 30, 2019, at the Wayback Machine

[42] Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Archived October 19, 2016, at the Wayback Machine

[43] Google Consumer Surveys

[44] The Times-Picayune/Lucid

[45] Des Moines Register/Selzer

[46] Loras College

[47] Quinnipiac University Archived September 24, 2016, at the Wayback Machine

[48] Monmouth University

[49] RABA Research Archived September 13, 2016, at the Wayback Machine

[50] Emerson College

[51] Public Policy Polling^[usurped]

[52] CBS News/YouGov

[53] Quinnipiac University Archived October 14, 2016, at the Wayback Machine

[54] Suffolk University

[55] NBC/WSJ/Marist

[56] CBS News/YouGov

[57] Monmouth University

[58] NBC/WSJ/Marist

[59] Loras College Archived July 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine

[60] Public Policy Polling

[61] Public Policy Polling

[Public_Policy_Polling-62] Public Policy Polling

[publicpolicypolling.com-63] Public Policy Polling

[ReferenceA-64] Public Policy Polling

[ReferenceB-65] Public Policy Polling

[66] Public Policy Polling

[67] Public Policy Polling

[68] Public Policy Polling

[IAGeneralresults-69] "Official Results General Election" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved December 19, 2016.

[70] "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting.

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2016 United States Senate election in Iowa

Background

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Results

General election

Predictions

Debates

Polling

Results

By congressional district

References

External links

Information related to 2016 United States Senate election in Iowa

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